If you’d asked me a month ago about the odds of a US president publicly stating that the US would “run” Venezuela, I would have said vanishingly low.
Then it happened.
The country with the world’s largest petroleum reserves may be back in business in a way it hasn’t been in decades.
Winter Storm Fern is another example. No one’s natural gas forecast had a storm-driven demand spike resetting forward curves dramatically upward in days.
Both of these events are reminders of how quickly low-likelihood, high-consequence events can remake the energy conversation.
These events are unforeseeable.
One response is to forego creating a market outlook at all.
But even without a formal outlook, you’re still relying on intuition and experience to guide decisions. You can’t escape having a view, so you might as well be deliberate about it.
This path requires conviction.
At the same time, the market can pivot. Dramatically. Immediately.
No matter how much conviction you have, you need the humility to update when the evidence changes.
It’s the combination of conviction and humility that’s scarce and valuable.
This isn’t abstract.
In practice, it means committing to a path while building in optionality, because the rules can change at a moment’s notice.
Hold your outlook until the market gives you reason to pivot. Then pivot.
