What separates professionals who thrive from those who stay stuck? It’s all about their willingness to work toward uncertain outcomes.
I did a coaching intake call with someone looking to transition into a commercial strategy role in oil & gas.
We discussed something that’s been coming up more and more in many of my conversations.
Most professionals would work exceptionally hard if the outcome were guaranteed.
“Tell me I’ll get promoted in 12 months if I put in an extra 10 hours a week? I’m in.”
Careers almost never work that way.
We want clarity. A roadmap. Milestones with timelines attached.
That clarity is comforting. It’s also rare in any career that matters.
Almost all the career value lives in uncertain outcomes.
It’s a question of whether you’re willing to do the work for the chance of achieving something great.
In the coaching call, we talked about asymmetric bets.
Things you can do that have limited downside (a handful of hours) but incredible upside (visibility with someone who can open doors to roles with hundreds of thousands of dollars in incremental earnings).
These bets aren’t guaranteed to work.
They’re just your best shot.
The cleanest way I’ve found to segment people professionally: whether someone is willing to invest time and energy in something with an uncertain outcome.
It’s true everywhere.
But particularly in energy, where the sector itself is volatile and the opportunities are largely asymmetric.
The question all of us should ponder: what’s the next asymmetric bet we’re willing to place, knowing there’s no guarantee it’ll pay off?
