The US rig count is up 19 over the past 8 weeks. With WTI falling to $77, where is the rig count at year-end?
In the past month, WTI prices have fallen $30 per barrel, far from their perch over $100.
In the middle of April, the US rig count was at 543. Just last week, it was 562, a rapid climb after years of being flat-to-down.
How much of that gain came from near triple digit WTI prices?
How much simply came from confidence that we had a firm floor under prices, with the triple digit upside a bonus?
Your year-end guess is in some way a verdict on these questions.
If the climb was about soaring price heights, then below $80 should start to bite. If instead it was confidence in the floor, then we could see more activity to come.
Cast a vote in the poll below. I’d love to know what you think on this one.
Link to poll here.
With WTI far from its peak, how does the US rig count respond by year-end?
- Down 10+ rigs (back to pre-war level)
- +/- 10 rigs (stable from here)
- Up over 10 rigs (increase with confidence)
