We know we’re facing a historical oil supply surplus. ExxonMobil and Chevron just helped us understand why.
Global oil supply in December was 108 million barrels per day according to the US EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook.
Last December? 104 million barrels per day.
That’s 4% growth.
What happened to demand?
It went from 103 to 105 million barrels per day. Just 2% growth.
That 2 million barrel gap between supply growth and demand growth is the reason oil prices and rig counts continue to languish.
ExxonMobil and Chevron just showed us where some of that supply surge came from.
ExxonMobil’s liquids production went from 3.0 million barrels per day in 2024 to 3.3 in 2025. That’s a 10% jump.
Chevron’s liquids production went from 2.0 million barrels per day in 2024 to 2.3 in 2025. That’s +17%.
When global oil demand increases 2% but two of the world’s largest producers ramp 10% and 17%, you get a historic supply surplus.
Interestingly, the US EIA expects global oil supply to stay effectively flat over the next two years.
The read?
2025 was a one-off.
Saudi Arabia (+1.1 million bpd), Brazil (+0.7), the United States (+0.6), and Guyana (+0.3) all hit at once.
2025 was the supply surge. 2026 and 2027 are when demand catches up.
