I wrote on Monday about politicians head-faking the oil market. What do you think WTI looks like in December?
The premise of my earlier post was that speculators are rushing to bid oil prices down the moment they get hopeful news about a Strait of Hormuz reopening.
But each bit of hopeful news so far has been followed by reasons to believe the disruption will drag on.
So where does WTI end the year?
➜ Do we get a quick and nominally complete resolution that causes oil prices to surprise to the down side, below $75?
➜ Do speculators have it right, and we should expect a steady, ongoing Strait reopening that carries oil prices to $75-85 in December, the current level of the futures curve?
➜ Do we get a negotiated agreement that effectively only partially reopens the Strait, keeping oil prices elevated around $85-95?
➜ Do we see no meaningful diplomatic progress, and possibly occasional military flare-ups, that keep oil prices above $95?
Let me know what you think.
Once the poll closes, I’ll report back with my take both on the results and my read through the end of the year.
