US oil & gas extraction employment has fallen to a 50-plus-year low. US oil production is near record highs.
Both are true at the same time. And it’s a trend we’ve seen in agriculture for well over a century.
Every month or so I hear the same worry: the oil sector is shedding jobs.
It’s a real concern for the people living it. But it isn’t a sign of an industry in trouble.
US agriculture has been on this path and continued to thrive.
Ag output sits near all-time highs, while farm employment is down ~70% over the past 70 years.
Oil production keeps climbing, while extraction employment falls to multidecade lows
In both, price cycles drive the timing of hiring and layoffs, while technology sets the long-run direction: more output, fewer hands.
We know oil is moving in the same direction as agriculture.
What we don’t know is the pace.
What does a durable career look like in a sector being reshaped so profoundly, in such relatively short order?
Full analysis, with the charts, in this week’s Foundations of Energy post.
