“Natural gas has a bright future.”
That’s the consensus. It’s also a hand-waving claim. So I built a model to test it.
I generated three data-driven views of US natural gas production out to 2040, isolating the three forces that actually move the number: domestic consumption, LNG exports, and pipeline exports to Mexico.
The three cases:
→ Conservative: half the recent growth rate. Still adds ~30 Bcfpd by 2040.
→ Steady: a continuation of the path we’re on. ~46 Bcfpd.
→ Aggressive: ~73 Bcfpd, more than double the conservative case.
Gas is looking at material growth in each of these scenarios.
The interesting question is what’s driving the growth, because the conservative and aggressive cases tell two very different stories about why gas is needed.
One has gas filling in around renewables. The other has it competing against them at the margin.
The difference matters a lot for how producers and their service partners should position.
You can find the full analysis, with all three scenario charts, in my most recent Foundations of Energy post.
Which case feels closest to reality to you?
