The UAE is leaving OPEC. Much of the conversation is about how this changes oil markets.
I’d argue the causation runs the other way.
The UAE is leaving OPEC because oil markets are already changing. Fundamentally.
Qatar left OPEC back in 2019, and we didn’t see this level of speculation about the organization’s future.
Seven years later, the consensus around oil’s long-term trajectory has sharpened, and this clarity explains UAE’s timing.
In my latest Foundations of Energy post, I work through the data:
→ Where the UAE sits in OPEC’s oil production rankings (and why its departure matters more than Qatar’s did)
→ How the UAE’s production mix compares to Qatar’s and the rest of OPEC’s
→ What the most bullish credible 2050 oil demand forecasts (from OPEC and ExxonMobil) tell us about why the UAE is moving now
No one knows whether OPEC will unravel or not. That’s not the most noteworthy story.
The real story is that more producers are repositioning for a fundamentally different market in the decades ahead.
Full analysis with charts here.
