Oil prices have climbed to $100 per barrel since the start of the Iran War. But how much higher can they really go?
I’ve been asked this question constantly, both by audiences at speaking events and by media members reporting on the conflict.
The short answer I gave to The New York Post: there’s really no upper bound.
But history gives us a more useful framework.
In my latest Foundations of Energy post, I looked at how rapidly oil prices have climbed during past disruptions: the pandemic recovery, the first Iraq War, and now the Iran War.
A few things stood out:
→ On an inflation-adjusted basis, $100 oil is still well below the peaks we saw in the runup to the financial crisis, during the shale boom, and during the pandemic recovery
→ The current price spike already ranks as the third-largest we’ve seen in 40+ years of WTI trading
→ If markets respond with similar intensity to past disruptions, historical patterns point to $120-$140 per barrel in the coming weeks
The structural parallels to the first Iraq War are particularly striking and worth understanding if you’re trying to frame what comes next.
